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Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Monday, December 22, 2008
Apa Macam?
Are penny stocks a good catch now in anticipation of the market bottom? I wish I have a definite answer.
In Malaysia, penny stocks are defined as counters that trade below RM1 per share.
Under normal market conditions, penny stocks do not attract much interest, particularly among institutional investors, because they are deemed too risky and their returns rather insignificant to justify investment.
This is because penny stocks are usually associated with smallish companies that are less resilient, and do not have a sustainable business model.
“The reasons for these counters being quoted at low prices are because of the recurrent losses from their business operations and the extremely negative perception about their quality,” an analyst at a bank-backed research company explains.
Nevertheless, to some retail investors, penny stocks are cheap counters that could sometimes do wonders and provide decent returns.
At face value, these counters are highly affordable. And because they trade at such low prices, penny stocks have a limited downside risk.
This is possibly one factor that could attract some buying interest, particularly in the current volatile market condition, as investors seek to cap their losses in the event their equity investments turn sour.
However, analysts caution investors against being carried away with penny stocks that may appear to be attractive.
This is because many of these counters are inherently risky and have a higher chance of crashing out of the market in bad times.
Generally, investors should base their buying decision on the valuation of a stock, and not its absolute price because most of the penny stocks are not worthy investments, say analysts.
But if penny stocks are their flavours, analysts advise investors to do a thorough background check on the companies before jumping on the penny-stock bandwagon.
Investing in penny stocks need more research and monitoring compared with blue-chip counters, and investors need to be alert and watch out for news affecting the companies, they say.
Selective BetsTA head of research Kaladher Govindan recommends investors who are considering buying penny stocks to look for counters with good fundamentals and those that attract strong volumes.
“As in any investment, ensuring that a counter has good business fundamentals is very important, otherwise investors can face difficulty when they want to dispose of their shares later on,” he explains.
Aseambankers head of research Vincent Khoo points out that investors should also consider the sector in which the penny stock operates to ensure that the counter can still generate positive earnings in the midst of a challenging economic environment. Counters operating in defensive sectors such as consumer food, utility, gaming and rubber gloves have a higher chance of riding through the crisis.
Another criteria to justify a penny stock investment, according to analysts, is that the companies must have sufficient cash flow or the ability to generate short-term cash to last them through the economic slowdown, otherwise investors could risk losing their entire investment in the stock.
“A company’s cash-flow position helps to gauge whether the company can remain as a going-concern when the economy enters a difficult patch few months down the road,” an analyst explains.
“Pay attention also to the gearing level of the companies, and compare that to their industry average; highly geared companies are generally not preferred because they indicate higher risk,” he adds.Staying powerAmong the penny stocks favoured by analysts include oil and gas counters such as KNM Group Bhd, Dialog Group Bhd, Scomi Group Bhd, SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd and Alam Maritim Resources Bhd.
Other penny stocks that also look attractive to some of them are Sunway Holdings Bhd, Zelan Bhd as well as real estate investment trusts, or REITs.
The list is not exhaustive, and analysts have differing opinion on various counters. The issue is, says a broker, investors have to do their own due diligence before investing.
Having penny stocks in the portfolio can be a good idea if the counters have strong business fundamentals but investors have to be prepared to hold on to these stocks for the long term to see decent returns.According to TA’s Kaladher, most penny stocks do not have institutional following; therefore, it is difficult to push their prices up.
Generally, they are also thinly traded, which makes them relatively less liquid and difficult to sell. So, the prices of some penny stocks can remain stagnant for quite a while.
“Turnaround for penny stocks tends to be longer, hence investors have to be patient enough to be able to enjoy the upside potential of these counters,” an analyst says.
Aseambankers’ Khoo adds that certain penny stocks have the potential to offer investors multiple gains over the long run at current entry levels.
For instance, some penny stocks are actually worth more than twice their current market prices based on the company’s future earnings potential.
These stocks are currently trading at penny-stock levels due to poor market sentiment. When the market rebounds, these stocks are expected to gradually recover to their fair values.
Strategic approachNo doubt investing in selective penny stocks can be somewhat profitable in the long run. But most analysts still feel investors should take the current opportunity to accumulate blue-chip counters instead, if they could afford them.
According to OSK head of research Chris Eng, investors’ attention now is actually more focused on blue-chip counters because they are safer assets and generally offer good dividends.
Besides, most of these counters are currently trading below their net worth (some have fallen by more than 50% year-to-date), hence making them attractive buys.
In addition, blue-chip counters are normally the first to recover when the KLCI rebounds, he says. And if there is window-dressing ahead of the year-end and New Year festivals, blue-chip counters are usually the ones that will benefit.
OSK expects the full impact of the global economic slowdown to hit the local market in the first quarter next year, with a possibility of the KLCI staging a rebound in the second half.
TA Research, on the other hand, sees the second half of next year as the time when the KLCI would reach bottom; hence the best time to buy stocks for long-term gains.
The current market valuation may be cheap (with the KLCI having fallen by more than 40% year-to-date), but many investors dare not take up long-term buying positions yet for fear of a “value-trap” – a situation where they are drawn into buying an undervalued stock, only to have the stock price decline even further after that.Kaladher says: “Due to the prevailing uncertainties and volatile market condition, most investors are currently trading only for the short term for potential ‘bear-market rally’”.
There is definitely more downward pressure in the days ahead for the local stock market. But as stock prices continue to fall, equities as an asset class will become even more appealing from the long-term point of view. This is particularly so in the midst of low interest rates and high inflation that eats up the real value of our bank savings.
So, whether investors are looking at blue chip or selected penny stocks, they can still benefit from the future growth of these counters when the current turmoil settles.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Zoran!!!
Yup, some call him the Serbian Kaka!
- Manchester United look set to seal a deal for Serbian starlet Adem Ljajic after he travelled to England alongside Zoran Tosic.
Left winger Tosic has flown to Manchester to undergo a medical ahead of his proposed move to Old Trafford in January.
United have already agreed terms with Partizan Belgrade for Tosic and have successfully appealed to get him a work permit. His move will be rubber-stamped once the transfer window opens next month.
Tosic, 20, flew to England on Wednesday evening after he played his final game for Partizan as they played out a goalless draw with Vojvodina.
But Tosic was not alone on the flight as his Partizan team-mate Ljajic accompanied him from Belgrade.
United have held a long-term interest in Ljajic and it has now been revealed that he has joined Tosic in Manchester.
It is reported in Serbia that Ljajic, who enjoyed a trial at Old Trafford earlier this year, will also have a medical with a view to signing for United.
Ljajic, rated as one of the best young players in Europe, will not be on the move immediately as United are ready to let him stay at Partizan for at least six months but possibly for as long as 18 months. ( source: here )
Here's a clip of him.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Is This Bottom???
Would one say a bottom has been made around 490+?
The stock went from 490+ to 727+ woh.
How many percent gain?
And now.....
if we expand the chart... we get this.
So if you ask me, in my flawed eyes, I see that using % gain from a low is not a safe indicator.
Bear market rallies are usually very strong. That's what I know.
Is the start of a bull?
LOL!
Me? I dare not make such a bold assumption la. What say you?
:D
*** in reference to: http://turtleinvestor888.blogspot.com/2008/12/bull-run-technically.html ***
ps: more technicals consideration. LOL!
Dates. Yeah, some folks can get really technical with the time of the year. 490+ was hit on the first few days of the new year in 1998. New Year rally?
ps/ps: Interpretations. There will be many. Many of can be made if one bought at 490+. Question is 'Did one switch off the lights when they are done on their way out?'
ps/ps/ps: Long term buying at that stage? Buy at 490+ to see the index go up.. and then drop way back down to 280 or 270+??? How? Could one have the conviction to hold all the way? And even so if one had bought the wrong stock, would buy and hold work?
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Sunday, December 7, 2008
KNM. 0.415 Support Bounce?
Friday, December 5, 2008
How resilient is our property sector?
The rationale given by property consultants is that in the late 1990s crisis, interest rates went up from less than 10% to 15%. Now interest rates are around 7% and getting lower for residential properties.
The second rationale is that banks were withholding credit in the late 1990s. The third rationale is that property buffs (which include buyers, sellers and observers) have learned from that crisis and are not so highly leveraged.
And then, excerpts from the "bear" point of view,
The world is going through what could be the worst financial crisis since WWII and there is no such thing as decoupling from the US market because every country is affected. The question is to what degree will we be affected, and how developers and property buffs will weather the crisis.
Glomac Bhd group managing director F.D. Iskandar Mohamed Mansor puts it,
“To those who say Malaysia will be insulated, let me say that when our trading partners – the US, Europe, Japan, India and China – are affected, we will be affected. We have to face that,” he says.
Savills Rahim & Co managing drector Robert Ang says,
“The condo market has been weak for the last couple of years. The office market will have a lot of supply. The landed houses will be much more resilient,” he says.
At the end of the article, it mentioned that a source from a foreign bank, who monitors the property scene says, “I would hold cash. Realistically, Malaysia has not yet felt the whole effect of the global meltdown. The next six months will provide more clarity.”
For the next 6 to 12 months, we will surely see more stuffs/news coming out from our BolehLand. We have already started to feel the heat from the current crisis with news of retrenchment, no bonus or "not so great increment", pay cut, etc...
How will all these affect our property market in the near future? Those who bought property(ies) and is still servicing their loans, I bet the word "retrenchment" is the last word they would want to hear.
I wouldn't dare to imagine how bad it will be when the time comes.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Zerin Property: 2009 Property Outlook
Zerin Properties, Previndran Singhe, gave his views on the outlook for Malaysian property for 2008. The key bullet points that we took away from the conference were:
1) Less property transactions expected in 2009 than in 2008
2) Landed properties in high-end areas will perform well
3) Only selected condo developments in the KLCC will do well
4) Foreign interest will remain strong due to Malaysia's relatively lower prices
5) Office market demand will remain firm
6) Overall, the Malaysian property market will be resilient because prices did not rise in the last few years nearly as fast as in many other countries
Previndran Singhe also highlighted the key risks for Malaysian property being: 1) Falling oil prices 2) Spiraling credit card NPLs
Manchester United 5 Blackburn 3
Click above for video highlights.
Comments: Teves scored 3 and not 4. First goal is an own goal. His last goal was superb! And the link play between Anderson and Teves for Teves first goal Teves second goal (or Mancheter United's 4th goal - video highlights missed this goal!!) was superb too. Hats off to Anderson for unselfishly play for laying the ball to Teves.
Star performers: Teves, Anderson and Giggs
Sloucher: Gary Neville.
Young lads such as Johnny Evans, Danny Gibson, Possebon and Rafael all played. Possebon had a below par game.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
CPCB vision and future direction
Therefore, as the CEO of CPCB BHD, i humbly request all members, shareholders and readers to give the management some sort of feedback in the comment area so that we will know what most of the people will like to see or read in this blog (It may not necessarily related to stocks).
We will slowly develop this blog from the input.
Thanks in advance.
p.s. we dun want to be called headless chicken
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
DiGi
For me, it's damn impressive.
There is a slight concern on what the CEO said yesterday.
Posted on Star
- Monday December 1, 2008
DiGi weighs funding needs
By B.K. SIDHU
It is to part finance capex of RM1.3bil next year
DIGI.COM BHD will need to go to the debt market next year to get some funding for its capital expenditure of up to RM1.3bil next year, says chief executive officer Johan Dennelind.
“We could do with some debt but we are still evaluating the type of borrowing we need. It would be a small part of the total funding requirement for 2009. Our guidance for our next year’s capex is RM1.1bil to RM1.3bil,” Dennelind said in an interview.
“From a capital management point of view, we can afford some leverage but we do not want to take on too much debt and put our balance sheet at risk, so that is why the portion would be small,” he said.
Dennelind said DiGi’s cashflow was still strong and that it was better to use it than sit on it. Its cash reserves at end-September was RM512mil while debts stood at RM200mil.
DiGi also has an existing RM700mil credit facility that it has not drawn down.
This year, the company’s capex is RM930mil.
DiGi needs funds to roll out its 3G-based services so that it can offer a whole gamut of new voice, video and data-based services.
The cellular operator is a latecomer to 3G offerings but Dennelind believes the company’s 3G offerings are “worth waiting for,” promising user experience which will be totally different from current offerings.
Expansion may be on the cards but analysts are concerned about the sustainability of DiGi’s aggressive dividend payments as growth in the telecommunications industry slows in tandem with the economic slowdown.
DiGi has dished out annual dividends and three special dividends, which totalled RM4bil over the past 3½ years.
“We think this pace of dividends may not be sustainable in the long term. For one, 25% of the dividends are paid out of existing cash balances. At the current cash burn rate, DiGi will turn negative net cash in the first half of 2009 and reach 40% debt-to-assests by the first half of 2010,” an analyst said.
Dennelind could not say if another special dividend was in the offing, but gave an indication of what was to come.
“We have over-delivered on our dividend policy. We are heading for an optimal structure and not going to leverage up. We will find a good balance by managing risk, our cashflow and shareholder value,” he said.
The economic slowdown has already resulted in lower voice traffic even though data traffic is on an uptrend.
And while additional revenues from data traffic can offset the fall in voice traffic, margins will be under pressure.
Nevertheless, Dennelind remains bullish that DiGi can grow its market share even in a slowdown. To him, DiGi provides good value even during tough times.
“The slowdown has not impacted us in the third quarter and we are generally on track for our fourth-quarter estimates. Otherwise, we will issue a profit warning,” Dennelind said.
For the third quarter ended September, DiGi saw its net profit sliding to RM269.94mil from RM273.28mil a year earlier, despite posting a higher revenue of RM1.22bil.
The lower net profit was due to higher traffic costs, advertising and promotional activities.
ps: DiGi reports its earnings this month.
Carta Bursa Terkini
Observations:
1. Bursa (1818) stock price is mimicking KLCI movements
2. Bursa stock price is generally high when earnings are high and low when earnings are low
3. Stock price do not 100% follow earnings
Conclusion:
1. Bursa (1818) could be a good stock to buy if one wishes to track the KLCI
2. However it is clear that the stock itself is somewhat cyclical.
3. Therefore it's strictly not a BUY and HOLD forever - type of stock.
4. One needs to buy at low prices (bear mkt) and sell at high prices (bull mkt) in order to profit
Comments welcome.
IOI Corp Q1 Earnings
Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/9/2008
See pg 17 for its loans:
See pg 13, for its segmental reporting.
** note the earnings from their property division.
and note the 'translation loss on USD denominated borrowings (bonds)
101's management notes on its earnings performance.
Man... I left out the ASSets!!!
ROFLMAO!
Here it is...
Corporate Earnings Snapshot
KLK
4Q ending 30/9/07 - 263.34 mil
1Q ending 31/12/07 - 291.14 mil
2Q ending 31/3/08 - 236.66 mil
3Q ending 30/6/08 - 245.36 mil
4Q ending 30/9/08 - 267.5 mil
Sime
1Q ending 30/9/07 - 601.27 mil
2Q ending 31/12/07 - 800.03 mil
3Q ending 31/3/08 - 1,089.55 mil
4Q ending 30/6/08 - 1,021.26 mil
1Q ending 30/9/08 - 866.98 mil
IOICorp
1Q ending 30/9/07 - 451.52 mil
2Q ending 31/12/07 - 581.19 mil
3Q ending 31/3/08 - 601.64 mil
4Q ending 30/6/08 - 597.28 mil
1Q ending 30/9/08 - 290.5 mil
Oil & Gas
KNM
3Q ending 30/9/07 - 61 mil
4Q ending 31/12/07 - 51.93 mil
1Q ending 31/3/08 - 54.13 mil
2Q ending 30/6/08 - 96.29 mil
3Q ending 30/9/08 - 103.42 mil
SapuraCrest
2 Q ending 31/7/07 - 11.21 mil
3Q ending 31/10/07 - 23.33 mil
4Q ending 31/1/08 - 33.38 mil
1Q ending 30/4/08 - 20.36 mil
2Q ending 31/7/08 - 32.1 mil
Kencana
4Q ending 31/7/07 - 18.97 mil
1Q ending 31/10/07 - 18.02 mil
2Q ending 31/1/08 - 23.68 mil
3Q ending 30/4/08 - 22.02 mil
4Q ending 31/7/08 - 23.39 mil
Dialog
1Q ending 30/9/07 - 16.95 mil
2Q ending 31/12/07 - 20.01 mil
3Q ending 31/3/08 - 22.26 mil
4Q ending 30/6/08 - 16.45 mil
1Q ending 30/9/08 - 18.82 mil
Construction
IJM
2Q ending 30/9/08 - 87.92 mil
Gamuda
Monday, December 1, 2008
Citigroup Says Gold Could Rise Above $2,000
Posted on UK Telegraph: Citigroup says gold could rise above $2,000 next year as world unravels
- Gold is poised for a dramatic surge and could blast through $2,000 an ounce by the end of next year as central banks flood the world's monetary system with liquidity, according to an internal client note from the US bank Citigroup.