Cow Peh Cow Bu Bhd

Trading Ideas. Hexza

2009-09-17T10:34:00.002+08:00

Hexza. Daily & 30 min charts.

Possible triangle breakout?

Lack of volume NOW.

John Mauldin - Toxic Equity Trading

2009-07-12T13:30:00.000+08:00

This Is OutrageousBut first, I want to direct the attention of those in the US finance industry to a white paper written by Themis Trading, called "Toxic Equity Trading Order Flow on Wall Street." Basically, they outline why volume and volatility have jumped so much since 2007; and it's not due to the credit crisis. They estimate that 70% of the volume in today's markets is from high-frequency program trading. They outline how large brokers and funds can buy and sell a stock for the same price and still make 0.5 cents. Do that a million times a day and the money adds up. Or maybe do it 8 billion times. It requires powerful computers, complicity of the exchanges (because the exchanges get paid a lot), and highly proximate computer connections. Literally, the need for speed is so important that to play this game you have to have your servers physically at the exchange. Across the river in New Jersey is too slow. Forget Texas or California. This is a game played out in microseconds.The retail world doesn't get to play. This is a game only for big boys who can afford to pay for the "arms" needed to fight this war. But the rest of us pay for the game, as that half cent is like a tax on transactions, not to mention the increased daily volatility, which skews pricing. Think it doesn't affect you? That "tax" is paid by mutual funds, your pension fund, and every large institution.Frankly, this is outrageous. The more I read the madder I got. And it is going to get worse as computers get faster and software more intelligent. We need rules to level the playing field. Themis suggests one simple one: just make it a rule that all bids have to be good for at least one second. That would cure a lot of problems. One lousy second! In a world of microseconds, that is an eternity.Goldman Sachs went after an employee who stole some of their latest and greatest software this last week. The US assistant attorney general said in the courtroom that the software had the potential to manipulate the market. Imagine that. I am shocked. There is gambling going on in the back room? Gee, commissioner, I had no idea.All this "algo" (algorithmic) trading also gives a very false impression of volume. If you are a fund and see 10 million shares a day traded, you might feel comfortable that you could hold one million shares and exit your trade easily. But if 80% of the volume is false "algo" trading, that volume isn't really there. You may have a position that will be a problem if you want to exit, and not know it."High-frequency trading strategies have become a stealth tax on retail and institutional investors. While stock prices will probably go where they would have gone anyway, toxic trading takes money from real investors and gives it to the high frequency trader who has the best computer. The exchanges, ECNs and high frequency traders are slowly bleeding investors, causing their transaction costs to rise, and the investors don't even know it." (Themis Trading)We are literally talking billions of dollars here. The SEC needs to step in and stop this, and soon. This is a lot more important than the salaries of investment professionals, for which the Obama administration today suggested new rules, which would allow the SEC to oversee salaries at member firms. Seriously? They don't have enough to do already? The link to the white paper is http://www.themistrading.com/article_files/0000/0348/Toxic_Equity_Trading_on_Wall_Street_12-17-08.pdf. Themis Trading is at http://www.themistrading.com/.

Bursa

2009-06-24T13:20:00.001+08:00

Bursa picture :D

Pierce through trend line and 30 day ema.. so its not good right?

Comments please thanks

FTSE update @ cow bull

2009-06-23T14:17:00.002+08:00

Did not manage to break 201EMA.

Now below 81EMA.

21EMA did not manage to cut above 201EMA.

21EMA is curving down nicely.

Note the MACD. (modified from Boon's 81,20,9)

S&P500 & FTSE

2009-06-23T07:10:00.000+08:00

Gold update @ cow bull

2009-06-22T07:39:00.003+08:00

weekly clear reverse H&S. but reverse H&S at top price range is suspicious.

monthly look like a double top which is more likely on the top.

Wait for clearer picture, watch current low pivot for for clearer picture.

CI update @ cow bull

2009-06-21T19:01:00.000+08:00

Fear the Dark Side of China's Lending Surge

2009-06-20T12:08:00.002+08:00

Banks loans designed to spark economic recovery have been channeled into asset speculation, doing more harm than good.
By Andy Xie

(Caijing.com.cn) China's credit boom has increased bank lending by more than 6 trillion yuan since December. Many analysts think an economic boom will follow in the second half 2009. They will be disappointed. Much of this lending has not been used to support tangible projects but, instead, has been channeled into asset markets.

Many boom forecasters think asset market speculation will lead to spending growth through the wealth effect. But creating a bubble to support an economy brings, at best, a few short-term benefits along with a lot of long-term pain. Moreover, some of this speculation is actually hurting China's economy by driving asset prices higher.

The current surge in commodity prices, for example, is being fueled by China's demand for speculative inventory. Damage to the domestic economy is already significant. If lending doesn't cool soon, this speculative force will transfer even more Chinese cash overseas and trigger long-term stagflation.

Commodity prices have skyrocketed since March. The Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index has risen by about one-third. Several important commodities such as oil and copper have doubled in value from this year's lows. As I have argued before, demand from financial buyers is driving commodity prices. The weak global economy can't support high commodity prices. Instead, low interest rates and inflation fears are driving money into commodity buying.

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) alone account for half of the activity on the oil futures market. ETFs allow retail investors to act like hedge funds. This product has serious implications for monetary policymaking. One consequence is that inflation fears could lead to inflation through massive deployment of money into inflation-hedging assets such as commodities.

Financial demand alone can't support commodity prices. Financial investors can't take physical delivery and must sell maturing futures contracts. This force can lead to a steep price curve over time.

Early this year, the six-month futures price for oil was US$ 20 higher than the spot price. Investors faced huge losses unless spot prices rose. A wide gap between spot and futures prices increased inventory demand as arbitrageurs sought to profit from the difference between warehousing costs and the gap between spot and futures prices. That demand flattened the price curve and limited losses for financial investors. Without inventory demand, financial speculation doesn't work.

For some commodities, warehousing costs are low, limiting net losses for financial buyers. Some commodities can be used just like stocks, bonds and other financial products. Precious metals, for example, are like that. Copper, although 5,000 times less valuable than gold, still has low warehousing costs relative to its value. Some commodities such as lumber and iron ore are bulky, costly to warehouse, and should be less susceptible to financial speculation. Chinese players, however, are changing that formula by leveraging China's size. They've made everything open to speculation.

There's little doubt that China's bank lending since last December has driven speculative inventory demand for commodities. Chinese banks lend for commodity purchases, allowing the underlying commodities to be used as collateral. These loans are structured like mortgages.
Banks usually have to be extremely cautious about such lending, as commodity prices fluctuate far more than property prices. But Chinese banks are relatively lenient. As an industrializing economy, China's support for industrial activities such as raw material purchases for production is understandable. However, when commodities are bought on speculation, lenders face high risks without benefiting the economy. In some cases, this practice hurts banks and the economy at the same time.

Speculative demand for iron ore, for example, is seriously hurting China's national interests. Rio Tinto risked bankruptcy following its overpriced, debt-financed takeover of Alcan. When iron ore prices fell by two-thirds from the peak, the market started getting worried about Rio Tinto's viability, and its share price sank.

Chinalco then negotiated a US$ 19 billion investment in Rio Tinto. After that, Rio Tinto's share price nearly tripled. Rio Tinto then decided to issue new shares and cancel the Chinalco investment. Chinalco essentially gave Rio Tinto a free call option, and was ditched when a better option became available. The issue is why its share price has done so well.

The international media has been following reports of record commodity imports by China. The surge is being portrayed as reflecting China's recovering economy. Indeed, the international financial market is portraying China's perceived recovery as a harbinger for global recovery. It is a major factor pushing up stock prices around the world.

But China's imports are mostly for speculative inventories. Bank loans were so cheap and easy to get that many commodity distributors used financing for speculation. The first wave of purchases was to arbitrage the difference between spot and futures prices. That was smart. But now that price curves have flattened for most commodities, these imports are based on speculation that prices will increase. Demand from China's army of speculators is driving up prices, making their expectations self-fulfilling in the short term.

The failure of Chinalco's investment in Rio Tinto has been costly for China. After watching its share price triple, Rio Tinto saw it could raise money more cheaply by issuing new shares to pay down debt. The potential financial loss to Chinalco isn't the point. Rather, higher costs will stem from a further monopolization of the iron ore market because Rio Tinto, after scrapping the Chinalco deal, entered into an iron ore joint venture with BHP Billiton. Even though these two mining giants will keep separate marketing channels, joint production will allow them to collude on production levels, significantly impacting future ore prices.

The iron ore market has been brutal for China, partly due to China's own inefficient system. China imports more ore than Europe and Japan combined. Skyrocketing prices have cost China dearly.

For four decades before 2003, fine iron ore prices fluctuated between US$ 20 and US$ 30 a ton. As ore was plentiful, prices were driven by production costs. After 2003, Chinese demand drove prices out of this range. Contract prices quadrupled to nearly US$ 100 per ton, and the spot price reached nearly US$ 200 a ton in 2008.

The gradual concentration of major iron ore mines by the world's three largest suppliers was a major reason for this price increase. The nature of Chinese demand was another major reason. China's steel production capacity has skyrocketed, even though capacity is fragmented.
China's local governments have been obsessed with promoting steel industry growth, which is the reason for fragmentation. Huge demand and numerous small players are a perfect setup for price increases by the Big Three miners, which often cite high spot prices as the reason for jagging up contract prices. But the spot market is relatively small, and mines can easily manipulate spot prices by reducing supply. On the other hand, numerous Chinese steel mills simultaneously want to buy ore to sustain production so their governments can report higher GDP rates, even if higher GDP is money-losing. China's steel industry is structured to hurt China's best interests.

As steel demand collapsed in the fourth quarter 2008 and first quarter 2009, steel prices fell sharply. That should have led to a collapse in ore demand. But the bank lending surge armed Chinese ore distributors, giving them money for speculating and stocking up. That significantly strengthened the hand of the Big Three. The tie-up of BHP and Rio Tinto further increased their monopoly power. Even though China is the biggest buyer of ore by far, it has had no power in price setting. The global recession should have benefited China. Instead, the lending surge worsened China's position by financing Chinese speculative demand.

China is a resource scarce economy. Its import needs will only increase. International suppliers are trying to take advantage of the situation by consolidating. But Chinese buyers are fragmented due to local government protection. China's lending surge made matters worse by creating excessive speculative demand.

What is happening in the commodity market is glaring proof that China's lending surge is hurting the country. Even more serious is that it is leading Chinese companies away from real business and further toward asset speculation – virtual business.

The tough economy and easy credit conditions encouraged many companies to try profiting from asset appreciation. They borrowed money and put it into the stock market. And since China's stock market has risen 70 percent since last November, many businesses feel vindicated for focusing on the asset market. This speculation spread to Hong Kong. Mainland money may have been behind a recent rise in the Hang Seng Index to 19,000 from 15,000, as well as Hong Kong luxury property sales. One way or another, it seems the money source was China's lending binge.

Borrowing money for asset market speculation is not restricted to private companies. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) appear to be lending money to private companies at high interest rates, i.e. loan sharking, using money borrowed at low rates from state-owned banks. Of course, we can't estimate the magnitude of such SOE lending. But it has replaced high interest rate financing in the gray economy.

As the economy weakened in late 2008, private lenders began demanding money back from distressed private companies. Loans from state-owned enterprises may have kept many private companies from going bankrupt. It has served to re-channel bank lending into cash for individuals and businesses that were in the lending business. This money may have flowed into asset markets. It is part of the phenomenon of the private sector withdrawing from the real economy into the virtual one.

It's worrisome that businessmen have become de facto fund managers and speculators. This happened 10 years ago in Hong Kong, and since then the city's economy has stagnated. Some may argue that China has SOEs to lead the economy. However, private companies account for most employment in China, even though SOEs account for a larger portion of GDP. Now, the government is spending huge amounts of money to provide temporary employment for 2009 college graduates. If private sector employment doesn't grow, the government may have to spend even more next year. The government is using fiscal stimulus and bank lending to support economic recovery. But the recovery may be a jobless one. China needs a dynamic private sector to resolve the employment problem.

We are seeing a dark side to the lending surge as commodity speculation hurts the economy. More lending may lead to higher commodity prices, threatening stagflation. Cheap loans benefit overseas commodity suppliers, not necessarily the Chinese economy. Lending policy should consider this self-inflicted damage. Many analysts argue GDP growth follows loan growth, and inflation is a problem only when the economy overheats. This is naive. Borrowed money channeled into speculation leads to inflation. And China may face a lasting employment crisis if private companies don't expand.

This lending surge proves China's economic problems can't be resolved with liquidity. China's growth model is based on government-led investment and foreign enterprise-led export. As exports grew in the past, the government channeled income into investment to support more export growth. Now that the global economy and China's exports have collapsed, there will be no income growth to support investment growth. The government's current investment stimulus is tapping a money pool accumulated from past exports. Eventually, the pool will dry up.

If exports remain weak for several years, China's only chance for returning to high growth will be to shift demand to the domestic household sector. This would require significant rebalancing of wealth and income. A new growth cycle could start by distributing shares of listed SOEs to Chinese households, creating a virtuous cycle that lasts a decade.

Putting money into speculative investments isn't totally irrational. It's better than expanding capacity which, without export customers, would surely lead to losses. Businesses currently lack incentive to invest. But many boom forecasters wrongly assume that recent asset appreciation, fueled by speculation, signaled an end to economic problems. That's an illusion. The lending surge may have created more problems than it resolved.

S&P500 + ASX200

2009-06-19T08:48:00.000+08:00

Hong Kong @ Cow Bull

2009-06-18T11:42:00.000+08:00

ASX200 @ cow bull

2009-06-18T10:21:00.000+08:00

S&P 500 update @ cow bull

2009-06-12T07:48:00.002+08:00

The trend is your friend until at the end when it bends.

If it were to bend, which is not happening now.

The level of pain depends on entry level in March , April , May .... and June.

HK & ASX @ cow bull

2009-06-11T11:24:00.001+08:00

USO update @ cow bull

2009-06-11T10:37:00.001+08:00

S&P500 @ Cow Bull

2009-06-10T17:24:00.000+08:00

FT100 update @ cow bull

2009-06-10T15:58:00.001+08:00

Fan Su Yip @ Cow Bull

2009-06-10T15:39:00.000+08:00

HK @ Cow Bull

2009-06-10T14:36:00.001+08:00

HK @ Cow Bull

2009-06-10T11:44:00.000+08:00

ASX200 & S&P500

2009-06-10T09:20:00.000+08:00

HK @ cow bull

2009-06-09T08:40:00.001+08:00

S&P 500

2009-06-09T08:01:00.002+08:00

S&P500 @ Cow Bull

2009-06-08T18:17:00.000+08:00

Trading Ideas. Huaan

2009-04-30T23:31:00.002+08:00

Weekly & daily charts
S : 0.260/0.270
R1 : 0.315
R2 :0.330
R3 : 0.430
R4 : 0.540

Trading Ideas. AMMB

2009-03-29T22:00:00.004+08:00

Weekly & daily charts

S : 2.63

R1 : 2.68 / 2.70

R2 : 2.90

R3 : 3.06

Higher lows & pivots on daily & weekly charts

Trading Ideas. Gamuda

2009-02-19T22:39:00.003+08:00

30 min, Daily & Weekly charts
S1 : 1.95- 1.96
S2 : 1.92-1.93
S3 : 1.88-1.90
R : 2.100

Animator vs Animation I & II

2009-02-04T09:24:00.001+08:00

I find these funny, and would like to share it out...

Animator vs. Animation by *alanbecker on deviant ART

Animator vs. Animation II by *alanbecker on deviant ART

Trading Ideas. Dialog

2009-01-05T21:51:00.003+08:00

Dialog weekly, daily & 30 min charts.
Potential upside until 1.050?
Note intermediate resistance at 0.89 , 0.95 & 1.02
Resistance or no resistance? :)
Short term support @ 0.83 thereabouts

... darn I miss using nextview.

(nextview...if u r reading this... u should lower your monthly charges considerably)

Happy New Year 2009

2008-12-31T09:18:00.000+08:00

Happy New Year 2009 - Click here for more free videos

Apa Macam?

2008-12-22T09:09:00.004+08:00

Are we going to see the market bottom around Q1 2009? or later? On the other hand, perhaps the new low has yet to show its ugly head.
Are penny stocks a good catch now in anticipation of the market bottom? I wish I have a definite answer.

But, I don't. :)

Well, if you think fishing is "fun", here are some food for thought.

Extracted from TheStar:

MANY counters have been heavily battered following the recent stock market meltdown, and they continue to trade at historically low valuations. What’s even more attractive is that many counters, including some fundamentally good ones, have now become penny stocks and the list keeps growing as the bear continues its rampage on the market.
In Malaysia, penny stocks are defined as counters that trade below RM1 per share.
Under normal market conditions, penny stocks do not attract much interest, particularly among institutional investors, because they are deemed too risky and their returns rather insignificant to justify investment.
This is because penny stocks are usually associated with smallish companies that are less resilient, and do not have a sustainable business model.
“The reasons for these counters being quoted at low prices are because of the recurrent losses from their business operations and the extremely negative perception about their quality,” an analyst at a bank-backed research company explains.
Nevertheless, to some retail investors, penny stocks are cheap counters that could sometimes do wonders and provide decent returns.
At face value, these counters are highly affordable. And because they trade at such low prices, penny stocks have a limited downside risk.
This is possibly one factor that could attract some buying interest, particularly in the current volatile market condition, as investors seek to cap their losses in the event their equity investments turn sour.
However, analysts caution investors against being carried away with penny stocks that may appear to be attractive.
This is because many of these counters are inherently risky and have a higher chance of crashing out of the market in bad times.
Generally, investors should base their buying decision on the valuation of a stock, and not its absolute price because most of the penny stocks are not worthy investments, say analysts.
But if penny stocks are their flavours, analysts advise investors to do a thorough background check on the companies before jumping on the penny-stock bandwagon.
Investing in penny stocks need more research and monitoring compared with blue-chip counters, and investors need to be alert and watch out for news affecting the companies, they say.
Selective BetsTA head of research Kaladher Govindan recommends investors who are considering buying penny stocks to look for counters with good fundamentals and those that attract strong volumes.
“As in any investment, ensuring that a counter has good business fundamentals is very important, otherwise investors can face difficulty when they want to dispose of their shares later on,” he explains.
Aseambankers head of research Vincent Khoo points out that investors should also consider the sector in which the penny stock operates to ensure that the counter can still generate positive earnings in the midst of a challenging economic environment. Counters operating in defensive sectors such as consumer food, utility, gaming and rubber gloves have a higher chance of riding through the crisis.
Another criteria to justify a penny stock investment, according to analysts, is that the companies must have sufficient cash flow or the ability to generate short-term cash to last them through the economic slowdown, otherwise investors could risk losing their entire investment in the stock.
“A company’s cash-flow position helps to gauge whether the company can remain as a going-concern when the economy enters a difficult patch few months down the road,” an analyst explains.
“Pay attention also to the gearing level of the companies, and compare that to their industry average; highly geared companies are generally not preferred because they indicate higher risk,” he adds.Staying powerAmong the penny stocks favoured by analysts include oil and gas counters such as KNM Group Bhd, Dialog Group Bhd, Scomi Group Bhd, SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd and Alam Maritim Resources Bhd.
Other penny stocks that also look attractive to some of them are Sunway Holdings Bhd, Zelan Bhd as well as real estate investment trusts, or REITs.
The list is not exhaustive, and analysts have differing opinion on various counters. The issue is, says a broker, investors have to do their own due diligence before investing.
Having penny stocks in the portfolio can be a good idea if the counters have strong business fundamentals but investors have to be prepared to hold on to these stocks for the long term to see decent returns.According to TA’s Kaladher, most penny stocks do not have institutional following; therefore, it is difficult to push their prices up.
Generally, they are also thinly traded, which makes them relatively less liquid and difficult to sell. So, the prices of some penny stocks can remain stagnant for quite a while.
“Turnaround for penny stocks tends to be longer, hence investors have to be patient enough to be able to enjoy the upside potential of these counters,” an analyst says.
Aseambankers’ Khoo adds that certain penny stocks have the potential to offer investors multiple gains over the long run at current entry levels.
For instance, some penny stocks are actually worth more than twice their current market prices based on the company’s future earnings potential.
These stocks are currently trading at penny-stock levels due to poor market sentiment. When the market rebounds, these stocks are expected to gradually recover to their fair values.
Strategic approachNo doubt investing in selective penny stocks can be somewhat profitable in the long run. But most analysts still feel investors should take the current opportunity to accumulate blue-chip counters instead, if they could afford them.
According to OSK head of research Chris Eng, investors’ attention now is actually more focused on blue-chip counters because they are safer assets and generally offer good dividends.
Besides, most of these counters are currently trading below their net worth (some have fallen by more than 50% year-to-date), hence making them attractive buys.
In addition, blue-chip counters are normally the first to recover when the KLCI rebounds, he says. And if there is window-dressing ahead of the year-end and New Year festivals, blue-chip counters are usually the ones that will benefit.
OSK expects the full impact of the global economic slowdown to hit the local market in the first quarter next year, with a possibility of the KLCI staging a rebound in the second half.
TA Research, on the other hand, sees the second half of next year as the time when the KLCI would reach bottom; hence the best time to buy stocks for long-term gains.
The current market valuation may be cheap (with the KLCI having fallen by more than 40% year-to-date), but many investors dare not take up long-term buying positions yet for fear of a “value-trap” – a situation where they are drawn into buying an undervalued stock, only to have the stock price decline even further after that.Kaladher says: “Due to the prevailing uncertainties and volatile market condition, most investors are currently trading only for the short term for potential ‘bear-market rally’”.
There is definitely more downward pressure in the days ahead for the local stock market. But as stock prices continue to fall, equities as an asset class will become even more appealing from the long-term point of view. This is particularly so in the midst of low interest rates and high inflation that eats up the real value of our bank savings.
So, whether investors are looking at blue chip or selected penny stocks, they can still benefit from the future growth of these counters when the current turmoil settles.

Emas

2008-12-19T14:36:00.003+08:00

Update

2008-12-16T09:18:00.002+08:00

Update on This The One I Was Talking About..

Daily:

Hourly:

Zoran!!!

2008-12-11T20:08:00.003+08:00

Yup, some call him the Serbian Kaka!

Manchester United look set to seal a deal for Serbian starlet Adem Ljajic after he travelled to England alongside Zoran Tosic.

Left winger Tosic has flown to Manchester to undergo a medical ahead of his proposed move to Old Trafford in January.

United have already agreed terms with Partizan Belgrade for Tosic and have successfully appealed to get him a work permit. His move will be rubber-stamped once the transfer window opens next month.

Tosic, 20, flew to England on Wednesday evening after he played his final game for Partizan as they played out a goalless draw with Vojvodina.

But Tosic was not alone on the flight as his Partizan team-mate Ljajic accompanied him from Belgrade.

United have held a long-term interest in Ljajic and it has now been revealed that he has joined Tosic in Manchester.

It is reported in Serbia that Ljajic, who enjoyed a trial at Old Trafford earlier this year, will also have a medical with a view to signing for United.

Ljajic, rated as one of the best young players in Europe, will not be on the move immediately as United are ready to let him stay at Partizan for at least six months but possibly for as long as 18 months. ( source: here )

Here's a clip of him.

This The One I Was Talking About..

2008-12-11T11:38:00.002+08:00

Is This Bottom???

2008-12-10T08:20:00.007+08:00

Back to the past.

Would one say a bottom has been made around 490+?

The stock went from 490+ to 727+ woh.

How many percent gain?

And now.....

if we expand the chart... we get this.

So if you ask me, in my flawed eyes, I see that using % gain from a low is not a safe indicator.

Bear market rallies are usually very strong. That's what I know.

Is the start of a bull?

LOL!

Me? I dare not make such a bold assumption la. What say you?

:D

*** in reference to: http://turtleinvestor888.blogspot.com/2008/12/bull-run-technically.html ***

ps: more technicals consideration. LOL!

Dates. Yeah, some folks can get really technical with the time of the year. 490+ was hit on the first few days of the new year in 1998. New Year rally?

ps/ps: Interpretations. There will be many. Many of can be made if one bought at 490+. Question is 'Did one switch off the lights when they are done on their way out?'

ps/ps/ps: Long term buying at that stage? Buy at 490+ to see the index go up.. and then drop way back down to 280 or 270+??? How? Could one have the conviction to hold all the way? And even so if one had bought the wrong stock, would buy and hold work?

Would You Trade This Stock?

2008-12-09T16:51:00.000+08:00

Would you trade this stock?

KNM. 0.415 Support Bounce?

2008-12-07T12:16:00.003+08:00

KNM Daily, 60 min, 30 min & 5 min charts

Do u reckon there will be 0.415 Support bounce?

Short term resistance at 0.5 thereabouts?

How resilient is our property sector?

2008-12-05T00:31:00.004+08:00

I happened to browse to this article and would like to share it here:

http://biz.thestar.com.my/bizweek/story.asp?file=/2008/11/29/bizweek/2667953&sec=bizweek

Excerpts from the "bull" point of view,

There seems to be two broad versions right now. The first is that the current crisis will not affect the property sector as much as it did in the 1997/98 financial crisis.

The rationale given by property consultants is that in the late 1990s crisis, interest rates went up from less than 10% to 15%. Now interest rates are around 7% and getting lower for residential properties.

The second rationale is that banks were withholding credit in the late 1990s. The third rationale is that property buffs (which include buyers, sellers and observers) have learned from that crisis and are not so highly leveraged.

And then, excerpts from the "bear" point of view,

The world is going through what could be the worst financial crisis since WWII and there is no such thing as decoupling from the US market because every country is affected. The question is to what degree will we be affected, and how developers and property buffs will weather the crisis.

Glomac Bhd group managing director F.D. Iskandar Mohamed Mansor puts it,

“To those who say Malaysia will be insulated, let me say that when our trading partners – the US, Europe, Japan, India and China – are affected, we will be affected. We have to face that,” he says.

Savills Rahim & Co managing drector Robert Ang says,

“The condo market has been weak for the last couple of years. The office market will have a lot of supply. The landed houses will be much more resilient,” he says.

At the end of the article, it mentioned that a source from a foreign bank, who monitors the property scene says, “I would hold cash. Realistically, Malaysia has not yet felt the whole effect of the global meltdown. The next six months will provide more clarity.”

For the next 6 to 12 months, we will surely see more stuffs/news coming out from our BolehLand. We have already started to feel the heat from the current crisis with news of retrenchment, no bonus or "not so great increment", pay cut, etc...

How will all these affect our property market in the near future? Those who bought property(ies) and is still servicing their loans, I bet the word "retrenchment" is the last word they would want to hear.

I wouldn't dare to imagine how bad it will be when the time comes.

Zerin Property: 2009 Property Outlook

2008-12-04T14:22:00.002+08:00

From: http://thinkproperty.com.my/realestate/

Zerin Properties, Previndran Singhe, gave his views on the outlook for Malaysian property for 2008. The key bullet points that we took away from the conference were:

1) Less property transactions expected in 2009 than in 2008
2) Landed properties in high-end areas will perform well
3) Only selected condo developments in the KLCC will do well
4) Foreign interest will remain strong due to Malaysia's relatively lower prices
5) Office market demand will remain firm
6) Overall, the Malaysian property market will be resilient because prices did not rise in the last few years nearly as fast as in many other countries

Previndran Singhe also highlighted the key risks for Malaysian property being: 1) Falling oil prices 2) Spiraling credit card NPLs

UBS: Malaysia Market Outlook 2009

2008-12-04T14:16:00.001+08:00

Snapshots - Olga Kurylenko

2008-12-04T12:48:00.002+08:00

Manchester United 5 Blackburn 3

2008-12-04T07:59:00.000+08:00

Click above for video highlights.

Match report: here an here

Comments: Teves scored 3 and not 4. First goal is an own goal. His last goal was superb! And the link play between Anderson and Teves for ~~Teves first goal~~ Teves second goal (or Mancheter United's 4th goal - video highlights missed this goal!!) was superb too. Hats off to Anderson for unselfishly play for laying the ball to Teves.

Star performers: Teves, Anderson and Giggs

Sloucher: Gary Neville.

Young lads such as Johnny Evans, Danny Gibson, Possebon and Rafael all played. Possebon had a below par game.

Earnings Snapshot: Hiap Teck

2008-12-03T19:46:00.000+08:00

Hiap Teck reported its earnings.

JPM notes on Dialog

2008-12-03T17:04:00.000+08:00

From JP Morgan:

Interlude - Happy Tree Friends

2008-12-03T16:56:00.000+08:00

Happy Tree Friends - Eye Candy

CPCB vision and future direction

2008-12-03T13:45:00.000+08:00

After some serious discussion with the owner of the blog, the top management of the company feels that the company need to continously upgrade this blog to maintain our status as the market leader and remain relevant to our investor. Hence, we have decided that in order to do so, we need new guidelines, vision and future direction for this blog. However, this can't be achieve without the help and input from all the members of the company.

Therefore, as the CEO of CPCB BHD, i humbly request all members, shareholders and readers to give the management some sort of feedback in the comment area so that we will know what most of the people will like to see or read in this blog (It may not necessarily related to stocks).
We will slowly develop this blog from the input.

Thanks in advance.

p.s. we dun want to be called headless chicken

DiGi

2008-12-02T16:45:00.000+08:00

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/6/2008

For me, it's damn impressive.

There is a slight concern on what the CEO said yesterday.

Posted on Star

Monday December 1, 2008
DiGi weighs funding needs
By B.K. SIDHU

It is to part finance capex of RM1.3bil next year

DIGI.COM BHD will need to go to the debt market next year to get some funding for its capital expenditure of up to RM1.3bil next year, says chief executive officer Johan Dennelind.

“We could do with some debt but we are still evaluating the type of borrowing we need. It would be a small part of the total funding requirement for 2009. Our guidance for our next year’s capex is RM1.1bil to RM1.3bil,” Dennelind said in an interview.

“From a capital management point of view, we can afford some leverage but we do not want to take on too much debt and put our balance sheet at risk, so that is why the portion would be small,” he said.

Dennelind said DiGi’s cashflow was still strong and that it was better to use it than sit on it. Its cash reserves at end-September was RM512mil while debts stood at RM200mil.

DiGi also has an existing RM700mil credit facility that it has not drawn down.

This year, the company’s capex is RM930mil.

DiGi needs funds to roll out its 3G-based services so that it can offer a whole gamut of new voice, video and data-based services.

The cellular operator is a latecomer to 3G offerings but Dennelind believes the company’s 3G offerings are “worth waiting for,” promising user experience which will be totally different from current offerings.

Expansion may be on the cards but analysts are concerned about the sustainability of DiGi’s aggressive dividend payments as growth in the telecommunications industry slows in tandem with the economic slowdown.

DiGi has dished out annual dividends and three special dividends, which totalled RM4bil over the past 3½ years.

“We think this pace of dividends may not be sustainable in the long term. For one, 25% of the dividends are paid out of existing cash balances. At the current cash burn rate, DiGi will turn negative net cash in the first half of 2009 and reach 40% debt-to-assests by the first half of 2010,” an analyst said.

Dennelind could not say if another special dividend was in the offing, but gave an indication of what was to come.

“We have over-delivered on our dividend policy. We are heading for an optimal structure and not going to leverage up. We will find a good balance by managing risk, our cashflow and shareholder value,” he said.

The economic slowdown has already resulted in lower voice traffic even though data traffic is on an uptrend.

And while additional revenues from data traffic can offset the fall in voice traffic, margins will be under pressure.

Nevertheless, Dennelind remains bullish that DiGi can grow its market share even in a slowdown. To him, DiGi provides good value even during tough times.

“The slowdown has not impacted us in the third quarter and we are generally on track for our fourth-quarter estimates. Otherwise, we will issue a profit warning,” Dennelind said.

For the third quarter ended September, DiGi saw its net profit sliding to RM269.94mil from RM273.28mil a year earlier, despite posting a higher revenue of RM1.22bil.

The lower net profit was due to higher traffic costs, advertising and promotional activities.

ps: DiGi reports its earnings this month.

Carta Bursa Terkini

2008-12-02T15:54:00.001+08:00

KLCI (3 years)

Bursa (1818) stock price (3 years)

Correlation between earnings and stock price

Note: Figures in boxes are Bursa (1818) quarterly earnings (in millions)

Observations:
1. Bursa (1818) stock price is mimicking KLCI movements
2. Bursa stock price is generally high when earnings are high and low when earnings are low
3. Stock price do not 100% follow earnings

Conclusion:
1. Bursa (1818) could be a good stock to buy if one wishes to track the KLCI
2. However it is clear that the stock itself is somewhat cyclical.
3. Therefore it's strictly not a BUY and HOLD forever - type of stock.
4. One needs to buy at low prices (bear mkt) and sell at high prices (bull mkt) in order to profit

Comments welcome.

IOI Corp Q1 Earnings

2008-12-02T13:41:00.000+08:00

~~For Gotenks~~, For no one. *grins*

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/9/2008

See pg 17 for its loans:

See pg 13, for its segmental reporting.

** note the earnings from their property division.
and note the 'translation loss on USD denominated borrowings (bonds)

101's management notes on its earnings performance.

Man... I left out the ASSets!!!

ROFLMAO!

Here it is...

Corporate Earnings Snapshot

2008-12-02T10:36:00.000+08:00

Plantation

KLK
4Q ending 30/9/07 - 263.34 mil
1Q ending 31/12/07 - 291.14 mil
2Q ending 31/3/08 - 236.66 mil
3Q ending 30/6/08 - 245.36 mil
4Q ending 30/9/08 - 267.5 mil

Sime
1Q ending 30/9/07 - 601.27 mil
2Q ending 31/12/07 - 800.03 mil
3Q ending 31/3/08 - 1,089.55 mil
4Q ending 30/6/08 - 1,021.26 mil
1Q ending 30/9/08 - 866.98 mil

IOICorp
1Q ending 30/9/07 - 451.52 mil
2Q ending 31/12/07 - 581.19 mil
3Q ending 31/3/08 - 601.64 mil
4Q ending 30/6/08 - 597.28 mil
1Q ending 30/9/08 - 290.5 mil

Oil & Gas

KNM
3Q ending 30/9/07 - 61 mil
4Q ending 31/12/07 - 51.93 mil
1Q ending 31/3/08 - 54.13 mil
2Q ending 30/6/08 - 96.29 mil
3Q ending 30/9/08 - 103.42 mil

SapuraCrest
2 Q ending 31/7/07 - 11.21 mil
3Q ending 31/10/07 - 23.33 mil
4Q ending 31/1/08 - 33.38 mil
1Q ending 30/4/08 - 20.36 mil
2Q ending 31/7/08 - 32.1 mil

Kencana
4Q ending 31/7/07 - 18.97 mil
1Q ending 31/10/07 - 18.02 mil
2Q ending 31/1/08 - 23.68 mil
3Q ending 30/4/08 - 22.02 mil
4Q ending 31/7/08 - 23.39 mil

Dialog
1Q ending 30/9/07 - 16.95 mil
2Q ending 31/12/07 - 20.01 mil
3Q ending 31/3/08 - 22.26 mil
4Q ending 30/6/08 - 16.45 mil
1Q ending 30/9/08 - 18.82 mil

Construction

IJM

2Q ending 30/9/07 - 92.07 mil

3Q ending 31/12/07 - 133.479 mil

4Q ending 31/3/08 - 116.47 mil

1Q ending 30/6/08 - 91.33 mil
2Q ending 30/9/08 - 87.92 mil

Gamuda

4Q ending 31/7/07 - 46.67 mil

1Q ending 31/10/07 - 88.06 mil

2Q ending 31/1/08 - 90.1 mil

3Q ending 31/7/08 - 76.7 mil

4Q ending 31/7/08 - 70.2 mil

Finance

Bursa

3Q ending 30/9/07 - 55.98 mil

4Q ending 31/12/07 - 49.49 mil

1Q ending 31/3/08 - 42.07 mil

2Q ending 30/6/08 - 28.64 mil

3Q ending 30/9/08 - 20.19 mil

KNM intraday charts. @ 10:10am

2008-12-02T10:04:00.000+08:00

Above : 1 , 5 ,15 & 30 min charts

KNM: Intraday 2nd Dec 2008

2008-12-02T09:57:00.000+08:00

5 mins charts.

30 mins charts

Citigroup Says Gold Could Rise Above $2,000

2008-12-01T13:41:00.000+08:00

Posted on UK Telegraph: Citigroup says gold could rise above $2,000 next year as world unravels

Gold is poised for a dramatic surge and could blast through $2,000 an ounce by the end of next year as central banks flood the world's monetary system with liquidity, according to an internal client note from the US bank Citigroup.

Malaysian Shares To Rebound.

2008-11-27T09:26:00.000+08:00

MALAYSIAN shares are set to rise today following sharp gains on Wall Street and after China slashed interest rates to stimulate the world’s fourth largest economy. “I think the market should move upward today, we are looking at the 885 points level as the immediate resistance for the main index,” said a technical analyst from a leading Malaysian brokerage. “We expect plantation stocks to gain also after a sharp rebound in crude oil prices,” he added. China’s Wednesday cut in banks’ benchmark lending and deposit rates by 108 basis points came a day after the World Bank said Chinese growth next year would be around 7.5 per cent, the slowest rate since 1990.
Elsewhere, hopes of a General Motors bailout sent US stocks up by more than 2 per cent in trading yesterday. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 2.91 per cent to 8,726.61 while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 3.53 per cent to 887.68. Malaysia’s main share index closed 0.44 per cent lower yesterday at 856.37 points.

Malaysia’s main share index closed 0.44 per cent lower yesterday at 856.37 points. Among the stocks to watch, Telekom Malaysia may extend gain after TM International said it has secured a RM2 billion (US$552.5 million) 3-year term loan to repay part of the RM4 billion it owe to Telekom. Investors have been hoping that Telekom will pay out special dividends with the repayments from TM International

Article extracted from Business Times /reuters.

Charts - GlySinn
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

today = just 1 day, ie today only?. :)
note: daily charts has gap of 867 - 874 :)

US In Bear Market Rally Mode?

2008-11-27T08:49:00.000+08:00

From CNBC Trader Talk:

Traders were slobbering all day about an imminent asset allocation program (out of cash, into stocks), part of the collective wish for that most elusive of 2008 creatures...a Bear Market Rally. And we did indeed end on the highs for the day.

Traders are insisting we are primed for a nice move of, oh, 20 percent or so from the bottom. Never mind the reasons (I detailed a few in my last note).

Uh, sorry guys, you missed it. The S&P 500 has rallied 20 percent since the bottom on Friday. The last time we were up four days in a row...was April.

Is that it? I'm not sure. Is this the bottom? Please. What we know for sure is that bottoms have been confidently declared this year in January, March, July, September, October, and now November. See a pattern?

Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/27930763

Aseambankers Commentary On Ramunia

2008-11-26T16:18:00.000+08:00

Aseambankers notes on Ramunia (26th Nov 2008)